🥛 Checking the market’s pulse: August ‘25 🩺

GM. This is Milk Road PRO, your portfolio’s preferred medical practitioner (gown on, butt exposed – let’s run some tests).

Let’s be real. July was one of those months that reminded everyone why we’re here.

Markets moved with purpose. Prices surged. And more importantly, the news flow kept the momentum alive. 

👉 It wasn’t just noise. It felt like the pieces of a much bigger picture were finally clicking into place.

We had big headlines, like Paul Atkins dropping Project Crypto, and growing interest around DATs pulling in serious Wall Street interest. 

These aren’t just side stories — they’re signals that major players are laying down long-term bets and the regulators are all-in.

And while the excitement is building, this is far from the top. What we’re watching is the foundation being poured — quietly, steadily, and with a lot of capital behind it.

So if July was any indication, the second half of the year could get very interesting. And in times like this, staying informed isn’t just helpful — it’s your edge.

That’s exactly what this report is for.

We’ve gathered the key data and charts from the past month to keep things clear, focused, and help us navigate the ups and downs of this market.

You’ll also get our latest $1K injection into the PRO portfolio: where we’re putting the money this month, why we’re doing it, and how it fits into the bigger picture.

And to give you the full story behind the numbers, the PRO team recorded a deep-dive research call, walking through this report, our current thesis, and how we’re thinking about positioning moving forward. PRO All Access members can watch the full session here.

(It’s all signal, no noise — built to help you make smarter moves, right now.)

Let’s dive in. 👇

MACRO

First up, the macro picture (because it’s what sets the tone for everything else).

The Business Cycle

The business cycle is the foundation of how we understand the trend and direction of markets – if you’re new here, you can learn more about how the business cycle impacts crypto markets here.

The chart below shows the ISM, which gives us a pretty solid clue about where we are in terms of economic activity right now.

Last month, we pointed out that the ISM sitting below 50 was the one macro box we couldn’t check when it came to confirming a full bull season.

Back then, the expectation — shared by pretty much everyone — was that the ISM would finally break through that magical 50 line and flip into expansion mode.

But the latest reading? A surprise to most. The ISM dropped slightly to 48.

It means businesses are getting fewer new orders than before. Some manufacturers say customers are holding off or cutting back on buying, likely because of uncertainty around tariffs or tighter budgets.

The good news is: now that the tariffs have been sorted out, it could help pick business back up again. 

But what’s more important are financial conditions (think rates and the dollar), which should ease into the rest of the year, allowing the economy (aka ISM) to pick up.

Rather than getting too caught up in expectations about when the ISM should move higher, our stance here is to just continue watching it closely so that we can react when it finally moves higher.

A sustained breakout above 50 should signal that the bulls are really running.

But ISM isn’t the only clue to where we are in the cycle – global liquidity is just as important.

And it’s been sending its own signals lately…

Global liquidity

Global liquidity tells us how much capital is flowing into the markets. And generally, the more liquidity — or the faster it’s rising — the better it is for risk-on assets like crypto.

You can clearly see a connection between rising global liquidity and Bitcoin’s price — when the money supply grows → Bitcoin tends to follow.

But the latest liquidity data shows M2 growth slowing down…not exactly the signal we were hoping for.

This slowdown could be tied to a stronger dollar in July, combined with the U.S. refilling its Treasury General Account (TGA) — a process that pulls liquidity out of the markets. 

And with around $300B still left to refill, this drain isn’t over yet.

That said, this isn’t catching us off guard. If you’ve been following our macro newsletter, you’ll know we’ve been expecting a stronger dollar and a TGA refill — so while the market might be surprised, we’re not. 😎

We’re still bullish and optimistic about the months ahead. These are just small bumps along the way — nothing ever moves straight up without a few pauses.

And there's another piece of the puzzle — the odds of a rate cut in September are rising. That’s definitely a positive shift, but there’s a catch: 

If inflation doesn’t stay in check, it could turn into a problem.

Truflation

That’s why instead of looking at traditional trailing inflation metrics, we’re turning to Truflation for a real-time view of what’s actually happening on the ground.

Truflation had quite the ride in July — starting at 1.65%, spiking to 2.05%, then dropping back down to 1.6% by month’s end.

But the Fed doesn’t look at Truflation.

They’re watching PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) inflation, which is expected to rise to 2.5% in July, up slightly from 2.4% in June. 

Some analysts worry this is because tariff policies are going to lead to a resurgence of inflation. But it’s too soon to say for sure if this is going to play out or not.

Right, so it was a volatile month (no doubt) – but what does it actually tell us? 

It suggests inflation risks are still lurking beneath the surface — not enough to panic, but definitely worth watching.

Overall, we’re still bullish on the macro side of things heading into the back end of the year. 

And we’ll be putting out a full macro deep dive soon so you can understand the full picture too – so stay tuned. 🙂 

PERFORMANCE

Let’s see how some major investment classes have been performing…

Asset prices

The total crypto market cap climbed 16% in July, while Bitcoin only managed a 9% gain. That kind of underperformance from BTC is rare, but this time, there’s a clear reason.

The recent surge in excitement around Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) has been a massive tailwind for Ethereum. 

Since most DAT activity is built on or around the Ethereum network, the hype has funneled billions in demand directly into $ETH – and it shows!

$ETH rallied 49% last month, becoming the key driver behind Bitcoin’s relative underperformance.

For context, the S&P 500 was up just 2% and gold actually slipped 1% — which means, outside of crypto, most of the market was basically flat.

In other words, the real action was happening in crypto. 💪

Speaking of crypto, let’s take a look at the biggest winners and losers from the past month.